{“title”: “What Incrementality Really Means in Affiliate Marketing”, “content”: “
The terms \”incremental\” and \”incrementality\” are frequently used in affiliate marketing discussions, but their actual meaning often gets lost in translation. Many marketers assume these terms refer to genuine increases in sales, new customers, or revenue growth. However, the reality is more nuanced. Affiliate marketers who invoke incrementality often evaluate it within the narrow confines of the affiliate channel itself, rather than examining its impact across the entire business.
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The True Test of Incrementality
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To determine whether your affiliate partners are genuinely incremental, you need to ask a fundamental question: Would this sale have occurred without the affiliate program in place? This simple yet powerful question cuts through the marketing jargon and reveals whether your partners are truly driving new business or merely capturing sales that were already destined to happen.
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The answer to this question determines whether your affiliate partners are bringing you fresh customers and additional revenue or simply intercepting customers who were already in your checkout flow. If the sale would have happened anyway, then the affiliate is not incremental\u2014they’re just taking credit for something that was going to occur regardless of their involvement.
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Why High-Intent Traffic Doesn’t Guarantee Incremental Value
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The concept of incrementality in affiliate programs shares similarities with how affiliates, agencies, and networks describe \”high-intent\” traffic. High intent indicates that a person has a strong desire to make a purchase, which sounds positive on the surface. However, what’s often omitted is whether that touchpoint would exist if the affiliate program didn’t exist at all.
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Consider how coupon sites operate. They might describe their traffic as high-intent because consumers are actively searching for deals. But examine the scenario more closely: a customer is already at your checkout page, opens Google, and searches for \”your brand + coupons.\” This behavior represents someone who has already decided to purchase from you\u2014they’re just looking for a better price.
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If you were to shut down your affiliate program today, these same touchpoints would likely continue occurring. The customer’s journey wouldn’t fundamentally change; they would still search for coupons and potentially find them through other channels. The key difference is that your company would save money by not paying commissions, network fees, manager salaries, or agency fees for these non-incremental sales.
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Yes, the traffic is high-intent\u2014it’s your existing customers already checking out of your shopping cart. You can’t get more high-intent than someone who has already added items to their cart and is proceeding through checkout. However, this touchpoint may represent low or even negative value because it occurs regardless of whether you have an affiliate program, and you may actually be losing money on these sales due to commission payments.
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Identifying Truly Incremental Partners
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Understanding incrementality requires looking beyond surface-level metrics like click-through rates or conversion numbers. The most valuable affiliate partners are those who introduce your brand to new audiences, create demand where none existed, or influence purchase decisions earlier in the customer journey.
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Content creators who write reviews, comparison articles, or how-to guides often provide genuine incremental value. These partners introduce your products to people who may not have been actively shopping for them yet. A blogger who writes about \”best running shoes for beginners\” and includes your brand is creating new demand rather than intercepting existing demand.
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Similarly, influencers who showcase your products to their followers can drive truly incremental sales. Their audience may not have been considering your brand before seeing the content. These partnerships expand your reach into new customer segments and create awareness that wouldn’t exist without the affiliate relationship.
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Even within coupon and deal sites, there’s a spectrum of incrementality. Some partners may drive sales to customers who abandoned their carts and need an incentive to complete the purchase. Others might attract price-sensitive shoppers who wouldn’t have purchased at full price. The key is understanding where each partner falls on the incrementality spectrum.
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The Financial Impact of Non-Incremental Partnerships
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Non-incremental partnerships can have a significant negative impact on your bottom line. When you pay commissions for sales that would have occurred anyway, you’re essentially giving away margin for no additional benefit. This can turn profitable transactions into unprofitable ones.
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Consider a customer who adds a $100 item to their cart, proceeds to checkout, then searches for a coupon code. If they find a 10% off coupon through an affiliate partner and complete the purchase, you’ve paid a commission (often 5-15%) plus network fees on a sale that was already going to happen. You’ve essentially given away 15-25% of the sale price for no incremental value.
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Over time, these non-incremental costs can add up to substantial amounts. Many companies discover that a significant portion of their affiliate program costs comes from partnerships that provide no real incremental value. This money could be better invested in truly incremental channels or used to improve profit margins.
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Measuring and Optimizing for Incrementality
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To optimize your affiliate program for incrementality, you need robust measurement systems. This might include holdout tests where you temporarily pause certain partnerships to measure their true impact, or attribution modeling that looks at the entire customer journey rather than just the last click.
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Customer surveys can also provide valuable insights. Asking new customers how they heard about your brand can reveal whether affiliate partners are driving new customer acquisition or just capturing existing demand. This qualitative data complements your quantitative metrics
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